Jacoby Brissett’s Contract Holdout Has One Vocal Defender — And His Reasoning Cuts Through the Noise

The Jacoby Brissett holdout with the Arizona Cardinals has left most of the NFL world shaking their heads. After going 1-11 in games he started last season and posting bottom-quarter results in expected points added per play, the veteran quarterback’s push for more guaranteed money looks, to many, like a long shot. Yet Anthony Reinhard — the analytics mind behind the popular StatButler Substack — has planted himself firmly on the other side of the argument.

Reinhard sees a straightforward case of market mismatch, not entitlement.

“If I showed up to my job and they promoted me but didn’t change my pay…”

“If I showed up to my job and I found out that they were promoting me but not changing my pay, I would want a raise, obviously,” Reinhard told us. “So I think it makes sense that he would want that. Who wouldn’t?

“The difference in pay between what bridge quarterbacks get and what backups get is pretty significant.”

Brissett, 33, enters 2026 as the Cardinals’ clear presumptive starter — a classic bridge quarterback. Those players typically land in the $9 million to $16 million range. His current deal carries a roughly $9.2 million cap hit this season, per Over The Cap. The structure underneath tells a different story: a $4.9 million base salary, only $1.5 million guaranteed, and $2.5 million tied up in bonuses. That puts him closer to backup territory than starter money.

Reinhard’s proposed fix stays modest. Guarantee the bonuses. Maybe add a couple million to this year’s salary. Nothing that would reset the market. Just align the paycheck with the actual role.

The Pressure Building in Tempe

General manager Monti Ossenfort sits at 15-36 across his first three seasons. New head coach Mike LaFleur is installing an entirely new offensive system. Every day of missed installation work carries weight.

Brissett skipped all voluntary OTAs. He reported to mandatory minicamp to dodge fines but did not practice. Those are the exact sessions where timing, footwork, and chemistry get built. Reinhard sees the clock working against both sides.

“If you get into training camp and nothing’s signed and he’s still not participating, those are really valuable reps by the day that he’d be missing. I think that is when you’re really gonna see this come together quickly. Probably early July is when one side will buckle, and that’ll be that.”

The Cardinals have backup options. They also have modest expectations for 2026. That combination usually gives a front office leverage. Reinhard argues the leverage may be narrower than it appears. Ossenfort needs to show the arrow pointing up. A capable, experienced quarterback who won’t embarrass the franchise helps that narrative more than another summer of uncertainty.

The 1-11 Elephant in the Room

The record is impossible to ignore. Brissett has never posted a winning season as a primary starter. Advanced metrics last year placed him in the lower tier of the league. Those facts fuel the widespread skepticism.

Reinhard doesn’t dispute the numbers. He disputes the conclusion that they justify keeping Brissett at backup-level compensation.

“If the Cardinals thought that they really needed to upgrade from what they got from him at 1-11 last year, they needed to make some more aggressive moves on the QB market. I don’t think Brissett is good, but I also don’t think he’s asking for the world. He’s asking for what you would give to a guy who can make it look decent out there and not embarrass you.”

That last line captures Reinhard’s core point. The Cardinals chose not to pursue a clear upgrade this offseason. They signed Gardner Minshew as insurance. They kept Brissett as the plan. If the front office truly believed a different arm would move the needle dramatically, the roster would reflect it by now.

Instead, they have a veteran who knows the building, knows the division, and knows how to avoid disasters. Reinhard believes that baseline competence carries a price tag the current deal simply doesn’t meet.

What Happens Next

Training camp will force clarity. The longer this drags without a deal, the more reps Brissett misses inside LaFleur’s scheme. At some point the cost of standing pat exceeds the cost of a modest raise. Reinhard expects movement before pads come on in earnest.

Most voices across social media and talk shows have already picked a side. Reinhard remains the outlier — the guy willing to say the holdout makes basic business sense even if the on-field results last year did not. Whether that view wins the day in the front office remains to be seen. But the logic he lays out is harder to dismiss than the memes suggest.